Seligman Tech Spectrum Fund
In June 2001, Paul and his team launched the Seligman Tech Spectrum hedge fund, a long/short strategy investing globally in Technology, Telecom, Media, Medical and Consumer companies across all capitalization ranges.
2020-01-28 30 YEARS AT THE HELM OF COLUMBIA SELIGMAN COMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION FUND
It’s important to recognize when accepted wisdom is no longer relevant. As industries mature, the dynamics change. There used to be a rule that any time the semiconductor industry saw year-over-year revenue growth above 40%, or saw unit growth in excess of 25%, the industry would go into recession within six months. These numbers made sense in the days when the PC market was driving 65% of semiconductor demand, and every chip company had its own fabrication plant and added capacity or hit the brakes at the same time. Now, with dedicated foundries dominating production, capacity adds are more granular and cyclicality has diminished. It’s unlikely that we will see the types of unit growth or revenue numbers that we had in the early days. Understanding these new dynamics is much more important than trying to apply the old rule. There are similar absolutes in other industries that have become less reliable as the world changed.
Business models matter. We have always been suspicious of high-risk business models, such as one-product companies. We focus on finding companies with strong intellectual property, a sticky customer base and pricing power. We want to see recurring revenue and free cash flow generation.
Assemble a team that balances investing skill with technical know-how. The members of the fund’s management team have all been investing in the sector for 15 years or more, but many of them also have their roots in the tech industry, working in computer software or as semiconductor engineers. They know electronics and understand the architecture of smart phones and the process development aspects of fabricating semis. This background allows them to understand which companies will benefit from a new development in semi manufacturing, for example. We believe it’s a significant advantage.
2025-12-24 This Tech Investor Likes Broadcom, Bloom Energy, and Other AI Bargains
We are fans of Wix.com, an Israeli company that is a leader in website design software. There had been concern that AI “vibe coding” would replace the need for professional software for designing websites. That fear has been blown out of proportion. Wix’s base business has continued to do pretty well, and it bought a vibe coding start-up in Israel back in June named Base44, which has been doing extremely well.
Wix stock is down about 50% this year because people fear competition from companies like Cursor, which is privately held. Cursor, an AI code editor, was just valued at $29 billion in a late-stage venture-financing round. It has annual revenue of $1 billion heading into 2026. Wix is profitable. It has a $5.5 billion market cap and generates more than $500 million a year in free cash flow. We see more positive risk/reward in the public markets than in late-stage private companies.
The narrative that Nvidia will inevitably lose share in AI processors is in the stock. But this is still a fast-growing market. Nvidia just grew revenue by 62% year over year in the latest quarter, and is guiding to 67% growth in its January quarter. It isn’t as though the company’s growth rate has slowed to a crawl or gone negative.
There are areas that feel higher-risk, including the so-called neocloud data-center companies such as Nebius Group and CoreWeave. This is something of a commodity business. It is inherently riskier because these companies don’t have significant intellectual property.
Bloom Energy has a unique story and many attributes. It makes the most-efficient fuel cells in the world. You can get these installed next to data centers within six months, as opposed to waiting years for your local utility to provide power.
Bloom got a 30% tax credit from Trump’s tax bill that no one expected. It has been able to lower the cost of its fuel cells by 10% a year for many years. Conceivably, these products will be meaningfully cheaper than gas turbines over time.
Bloom can add capacity fairly easily. It has said it can add a gigawatt of capacity for a little over $100 million. We expect Bloom to grow at a high rate possibly for the next decade.
We are skeptical of the quantum computing space. Let’s keep in mind that the four most prominent public-market quantum stocks were all created through SPACs. Quantum is an area that is perpetually five to 10 years away, and that has been the case for the past 15 years. It isn’t a replacement for AI processors. It can’t ingest huge amounts of information.
We feel that the total addressable market for quantum computing is small. It is useful for certain difficult mathematical problems and encryption. This is the reason governments are interested in quantum computing; they are nervous about people being able to break encrypted codes. But the commercial applications for quantum computing look like they are relatively trivial.
2026-06-30 SELIGMAN 广泛科技离岸基金 – CLASS A
每天，我们都会紧张地浏览新闻，试图寻找线索，以判断这一切最终将如何发展，但这极其困难。然而，我们的感觉是，目前距离周期顶部已经比距离底部更近。因此，我们一直在逐步减持表现强劲的 AI 赢家，并将资金重新配置至科技行业中其他我们认为被市场忽视，或被错误归类为“AI输家（AI Losers）”的领域。近几个月来，我们已完全卖出 Renesas Electronics 和 Rambus，并对大部分排行榜中的持仓实现部分获利了结，尤其包括 Bloom Energy、Semtech、Marvell、ON Semiconductor、Lam Research、Teradyne 以及 Applied Materials。我们还参与了近期几宗大型科技 IPO—Space X、Quantinuum 和 Cerebras，并在三家公司上均获得了可观收益后全部卖出。这也让我对于我们与 Morgan Stanley 长期以来的合作关系深感感激，因为该行正是上述三宗交易的承销商。
今年迄今为止，我们最大的烦恼是以色列网站软件开发商 Wix。虽然 Anthropic Claude 和 Lovable 等 AI 工具能够创建一些简单网站，但 Wix 拥有其自主开发的 AI 编码解决方案 Wix Harmony，与市场上其他同类工具相比，它在 Vibe Coding 方面不仅效果更好，成本也更低。 此外，Wix 还拥有一家从事 Vibe Coding 业务的子公司 Base 44，其收入每年增长超过 100%， 但由于需要向 Anthropic 支付推理（Inferencing）Token 成本，因此仍严重亏损。2026 年， Wix 核心业务预计将产生约 7 亿美元自由现金流，但 Base 44 预计将在约 2 亿美元收入基础上消耗接近 3 亿美元现金。Wix 目前正开发自有内部语言模型，这将显著降低 AI 推理成本，并最终使 Base 44 实现盈利。然而，这一转变预计要到 2027 年才能实现，而在此之前投资者基本已经放弃了 Wix。公司拥有 11 亿美元零息可转换债券，股权市值为 17 亿美元，而今年预计收入可达 20亿美元，自由现金流约为 4.25 亿美元，明年自由现金流则可能达到 5 亿至 6 亿美元。我们希望随着 20%的员工缩减以及使用自有 LLM带来的推理成本改善，Wix 的盈利能力将在 2027 年和 2028年迎来明显拐点。