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GreensKeeper Value Fund Scorecards
Issue #51 – The Prosperity Engine (October 2025)
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
The top contributor to the Value Fund in Q3 2025 was Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) +37.3%. As noted in our September client update, the stock reacted positively to a favourable court ruling in the search antitrust case. While GOOG continues to face a separate antitrust case related to its advertising technology business, we view the potential impact as limited given that ad-tech represents only a modest portion of the company’s overall profits.
More significant to Alphabet’s future earnings power, the company’s Gemini AI models are gaining momentum. In September, Gemini gained a meaningful share of Global Search Instances at ChatGPT’s expense. Last week, the company launched Gemini Enterprise, which adds enterprise security, privacy, and compliance requirements to GOOG’s top-end models while integrating them into enterprise data warehouses. We continue to believe that Alphabet’s distribution advantages, proprietary hardware and balance sheet provide it with long-term advantagesagainst competitors in the AI market.
Despite periods of negative headlines and share price volatility, we have remained long-term shareholders of GOOG. Over the past five years, Alphabet’s annual earnings have tripled—from roughly $40 billion to $120 billion—and so has its share price. We continue to view the company as one of the most competitively advantaged platforms in global technology.
ICON Plc. (ICLR)
Our second top contributor in the quarter was ICON Plc. (ICLR) +20.3%. We first purchased shares of ICLR earlier this year as tariff exposures, most-favoured-nation pricing, and looming patent cliffs led many investors to fear that pharmaceutical companies were about to significantly reduce their R&D investment. While the short-term industry dynamics were murky, we thought the market's reaction was excessively punitive. Admittedly, we did not have high visibility into ICLR’s 2025 earnings. Still, we believed the company’s long track record of execution and the benefits it brings to pharmaceutical R&D would enable it to weather a challenging period.
Our view is that clinical trials will get funded and that total industry R&D spending will continue to grow. Not much has changed since our original purchase, and the next few quarters are likely to remain challenging for the CRO industry. But pharmaceutical companies are starting to reach agreements with the Trump administration, which should provide them with greater clarity on tariffs and drug pricing. That in turn will enable them to recommit to large-scale clinical trials. ICLR continues to be well-positioned to benefit from the increasing need for larger, longer, and more globally diverse clinical trials required by therapies such as GLP-1s.
General Dynamics (GD)
Our third-best performer in Q3 was General Dynamics (GD) +16.9%. The company’s Aerospace division has largely resolved the manufacturing challenges that constrained deliveries in 2024 and has been steadily ramping up production. Backlog reached its highest level in years, driven by strong demand for the new G700 and G800 business jets, which should keep the division busy for the foreseeable future. GD also secured several billion-dollar defense contracts during the quarter, reinforcing the strength of its government business. We continue to value the stability and diversification that our defense holdings bring to the Value Fund, particularly amid the elevated global geopolitical tensions.
Fiserv Inc. (FISV)
Our largest detractor in the quarter was Fiserv Inc. (FI), which declined -25.2%. As noted in our Q2 Scorecard, the market reacted negatively to the deceleration in volume growth of Fiserv’s flagship Clover merchant-acquiring platform. On the company’s Q2 earnings call, management reaffirmed full-year volume growth guidance, which the market again took as a negative sign, prompting further share price weakness. We continue to believe that the company’s competitive position remains intact, and the business should carry on growing at attractive rates throughout the business cycle. Trading at 13x earnings, we view the shares as significantly undervalued and have added to our position. The company seems to agree as they are buying back shares rapidly in the open market.
Novo Nordisk (NVO)
Our second-largest detractor in the quarter was Novo Nordisk (NVO) -19.6%. NVO lowered its guidance due to several factors, including persistent use of compounded GLP-1 medications, slower-than-expected market expansion for obesity treatments, and heightened competition from Eli-Lilly’s tirzepatide-based therapies. We welcome the recently announced changes to senior management and the company’s new focus on operating efficiency.
We believe more vigorous enforcement against illicit drug compounding is emerging, providing a tailwind for NVO’s earnings. Longer term, we believe the company’s drug pipeline is better than the market is giving them credit for and that the obesity market will continue to expand as GLP-1 therapies gain broader indications, introduce oral versions, and payer coverage improves.
Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE)
During the quarter, we completely exited our position in Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE) as we viewed the shares as being fully valued. CBOE maintains a strong position with its dominant options franchise, and the investment was a great one, with the stock up 300% since our initial purchase in 2020. But the recent proliferation of zero days to expiration (0DTE) option trading—especially the increase in volume traded by retail investors—raised concerns that the company may be overearning. In the event of a prolonged market downturn, we believe trading volumes in these shorter-duration contracts will contract meaningfully, putting pressure on the company’s earnings.
Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
We made one new purchase in the quarter: Adobe Inc. (ADBE). ADBE is a global software company specializing in creative content, digital marketing, and document management. ADBE’s stock has sold off amid concerns that AI products (including GOOG’s Nano Banana) pose a threat to the company’s core Photoshop and Illustrator franchises. Our view is that ADBE is well-positioned to integrate AI products into its Creative Cloud suite, and that its tools have higher switching costs than the market is giving the company credit for.
Issue #50 – Temet Nosce (Know Thyself) (July 2025)
American Express (AXP)
The top contributor to the portfolio in the second quarter was American Express (AXP) +18.6%. AXP’s affluent customer base continued to spend in Q1, with revenues up 8% at constant currency, causing the stock to end the quarter just shy of its all-time high. During Q2, AXP announced upgrades to its US Consumer and Business Platinum cards, which will be released later this year. AXP continues to tailor its products to capture the spending of younger consumers, with Millennials and Gen Z now accounting for 35% of total US consumer spending. We believe these investments will strengthen the company’s network effect and further lock young consumers into AXP’s ecosystem as their incomes and card spending continue to rise. Additionally, AXP is widening its use cases on the commercial side of the business with recent product launches tailored towards working capital and expense management. This should expand the number of transactions that AXP can participate in and increase switching costs with commercial card users.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
Our second-best performer in the quarter was Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) +13.5%. During the quarter, Alphabet hosted its annual developer conference, highlighting its advancements in AI tools across its product suite. Google’s AI Overview product continues to gain traction with over 1.5 billion monthly users, and its direct ChatGPT competitor, Gemini, is now used by more than 400 million people each month. Recent updates have reinstated the company’s models to the top of the AI power rankings. Importantly for shareholders, AI Overviews have been increasing the total number of queries at Google, which the company is monetizing at a similar rate to traditional search. Google’s business fundamentals remain healthy, with operating earnings growing 20% in Q1.
Financière Richemont SA (CFR:SWX) 历峰集团
Rounding out our top 3 for the quarter was Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (CFR:SWX) +8.5%. The company’s core Jewellery Maisons (Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels) continue to prove more durable than nearly any other luxury jewelry brand. Our original thesis—that the top branded jewelry brands would outperform the luxury sector over time—is largely playing out with Richemont’s jewelry segment growing 11% in the most recent quarter. Richemont may have a few more tricks up its sleeve. Since acquiring Italian jeweller Buccellati in 2019, sales have increased almost 5x following a strong 2025. Additionally, Richemont recently expanded its portfolio with the acquisition of another Italian jeweller, Vhernier, in June. Both brands were acquired for relatively low dollar amounts, and management continues to manage the company conservatively and for the long term. We expect strong tailwinds over the medium to long term across the luxury industry and believe Richemont remains well-positioned to capitalize on the industry’s growth.
Fiserv (FISV)
Our worst performer in the second quarter was Fiserv (FI) -21.9%. The market reacted badly to Fiserv’s Q1 earnings release, in which it revealed that volume growth of its core Clover system was 8%, slowing from the 16% it averaged last year. The stock came under further pressure when management revealed that Clover’s business was growing at a similar pace to start Q2. Our view is that the slowdown in Clover’s growth isn’t due to a deteriorating competitive position, but due to a combination of slowing industry growth and lingering impacts from hyperinflation in some of the company’s fastest-growing markets. After recalculating our valuation for the stock, we believe the decline was overdone and added to our position throughout the quarter.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B/A)
Our second-largest laggard in the quarter was Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B/A) -8.8%. The most significant update at Berkshire was Warren Buffett’s surprise announcement that at the end of the year, he will retire as CEO, a position he has held for 60 years. It came as no surprise that Buffett will pass the torch to Canadian Greg Abel, who has been Vice Chairman of non-insurance operations for nearly a decade.
While we are saddened to see Warren stepping down as CEO (he will stay on the board as Chairman), it doesn’t fundamentally change our intrinsic value estimate of the company, and we have been assuming a pending change in leadership for many years now.
Novo Nordisk (NVO)
We made one new purchase in the quarter: Novo Nordisk (NVO), which we have owned previously. NVO, a Danish pharmaceutical company, is the world’s leading insulin maker. But today the company’s growth is driven by its GLP-1 franchise, which comprises Ozempic(诺和泰), Wegovy(诺和盈) and Rybelsus(瑞倍适). The stock has come under pressure following the uptake of competitor Eli Lilly’s (LLY) GLP-1 products Mounjaro and Zepbound. LLY will likely continue to gain share, but we believe the market for GLP-1s is large enough for both companies to continue increasing their revenues, and that the market is undervaluing NVO’s GLP-1 pipeline.
Merck & Co. (MRK) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX)
We fully exited our positions in Merck & Co. (MRK) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) in Q2 as both stocks were fully valued and we had better places for the capital.
Issue #49 – The Elephant (April 2025)
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)
The top contributor to the portfolio in Q1 was Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), with a return of +17.5%. Berkshire finished 2024 on a strong note, with operating earnings rising 27.1% from the prior year. The Insurance and Utilities & Energy segments showed stark improvement, with profits increasing 66% and 60% respectively year-over-year. With over $300 billion of idle cash at year-end, Buffett may finally be getting his opportunity to bag an elephant. Like his major acquisitions of the past, these moves drive the future growth of the company’s cash generation machine.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) was our second-best performer in the quarter, +20.4%. Growing demand for its Cystic Fibrosis (CF) franchise continued to generate substantial free cash flow. Vertex remains focused on diversifying its product portfolio and recently launched two new approved therapies: Alyftrek and Journavx. Alyfrtek is an improvement to VRTX’s CF portfolio, offering a once-daily dosing regimen that is far more convenient for patients. Importantly, it covers 31 additional rare mutations of CF for which no previous treatment existed. Journavx, a non-opioid pain signal inhibitor for acute pain, is beginning to ramp up sales as physicians gain confidence in its real-world efficacy and as VRTX advances reimbursement negotiations with payors. We believe that Journavx has the potential to become a blockbuster therapy, providing significant quality-of-life improvements to patients. In addition, VRTX is developing therapies for chronic pain that utilize a similar mechanism of action—blocking selective sodium channels—to inhibit the transmission of pain signals with little off-target effects. Success would be great news for shareholders, but more importantly, offer a powerful alternative to opioids and help combat the opioid crisis.
Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP)
Our third top performer in the quarter was Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP) +22.1%. CHKP’s enterprise cyber security solutions continue to gain traction in the market, supported by growing demand for advanced network security. Recently appointed CEO Nadav Zafrir, a pioneer in the Israeli cyber-security market, has bolstered the company’s executive sales force in efforts to accelerate growth. CHKP is well-capitalized, with over $2.5 billion of excess cash on the balance sheet, and continues to actively repurchase its own shares.
Elevance Health (ELV) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
Rounding out our top 5 performers in Q1 were Elevance Health (ELV) +17.9% and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) + 15.8%.
As mentioned in the last Scorecard, we believe the sell-off in ELV over the past year has been overdone, and the stock is trading at a significant discount to our estimate of its intrinsic value. The recent rebound reflects a partial correction of that mispricing.
ICE continues to perform well as a significant portion of its earnings is driven by transaction volume on its exchanges and increasing demand for financial data, both of which generally increase when panic-induced volatility hits the markets.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
Our biggest laggard in the first quarter was Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) -18.3%. Shares sold off following the company’s year-end earnings release in February, where it announced plans to increase capital expenditures by a substantial $23 billion in 2025. Recently, GOOG also announced its intention to acquire cybersecurity firm Wiz Inc. for $32 billion, aiming to strengthen its position in the cloud computing market. The scale of these investments is substantial, but we note that GOOG generated $116 billion in operating profits during 2024 and ended the year with $93 billion of excess cash on its balance sheet. In our opinion, the increased capital expenditures are necessary to maintain GOOG’s position in its core search market. Beyond search, GOOG continues to build value across YouTube, Google Cloud, Waymo, and DeepMind, all of which leverage GOOG’s enviable infrastructure.
American Express (AXP)
Our second largest contractor in the quarter was American Express (AXP). AXP finished 2024 on a strong note, with earnings growing 23% for the year. While provisions for credit losses increased, reflecting a more cautious credit outlook, net write-off rates remained below historical averages, indicating strength in the underlying credit quality. AXP remains well-capitalized, and its affluent customer base is expected to fare better than the general economy in the coming months. However, the stock was not cheap, and we trimmed our position in Q1.
One thing that is common across both our top performers and contractors is that they are well-capitalized businesses with durable competitive positions in their respective markets. That is by design. Companies that operate from a position of strength are better positioned to navigate market downturns and often emerge in a stronger position as competitors go bankrupt or are acquired. Moreover, many of our portfolio companies actively repurchase their own stock. Lower stock prices allow them to repurchase a greater percentage of their outstanding shares, leaving remaining shareholders with a larger claim on future cashflows. This is a powerful and tax-free mechanism for long-term value creation.
Icon PLC (ICLR)
We made one new purchase in the quarter: Icon PLC (ICLR). ICLR is a leading contract research organization (CRO) based in Ireland that manages clinical trials for pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies worldwide. Despite some uncertainty driven by recent personnel changes at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), we believe that new drugs and medical devices will continue to be developed, and scientific progress will continue. New drugs require rigorous clinical testing before reaching the market. As a leading CRO, ICLR will capture its fair share of clinical trials once the dust settles.